Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Get the monkey off my back

Now that the investment banking model is "officially dead", it is time to resolve the murder.

The Treasury's proposal of a massive bail-out for the troubled banks, getting the toxic debt off their books sent equities sky-rocketing on Friday. By now, the shrewd investors would have taken profit with the stock indices lower yesterday and today.

So what are the traps behind the TARP (troubled asset relief programme)? As The Economist points out, it could possibly be another stop-gap measure to stem the avalanche in the financial turmoil. The first liquidity programme extended in March/Apr, then the subsequent bail-out of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae proved to be short-term stimulus. Taking over the problematic loans and complex structures may save the floundering banks but might not win the credit crisis war.

The underlying loans may prove to be an over-bearing burden on the U.S. government and, for a nation going to the presidential elections in November, the fall-out will lie on the next leader. No wonder Mr Cowboy is all-willing to endorse this plan. He could be digging a big hole for the next fellow (then again, can anyone get worse?).

In my limited but honest opinion (of course governed by bounded rationality), this plan would only serve to prop up the rich and the very rich and the disgusting rich. The banks will survive the crisis, but the normal folks whose very loans underpinned the lending problems do not get a full resolution to their problems.

I should be grateful for this will keep me more secure (like Jade Goody on the gymnastic beam) but I wonder if this is only touching the tip of the iceberg.

Monday, September 22, 2008

Doc's out... come back later

In what was the most eventful week on Wall Street in recent months, I had to go on vacation.

Nope, not a deliberate attempt to escape the late nights in office given the recent upheaval. Nor was it an intended "push-out" by the management. It was mere coincidence. I have to publish a commentary report on the intranet everyday, so unsurprisingly is especially tuned-in to the latest events and news in the financial arena. To which Le Boss said, just as I was about to leave the office for Heathrow - "Take your finger off the pulse for the next two weeks. Come back to discover what had happened. You will have a fresh perspective".

Well, I spent an hour on Bloomberg after my arrival in Singapore on Saturday. So much for going on holidays.

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Last Man Standing

I need to correct my earlier "mistake". While JPMorgan is an investment bank, Chase's merger with the securities house meant that there are only two independent broker-dealer firms now.

Goldman Sachs (in the blue corner) and Morgan Stanley (in the red corner).

Funny thing is they are not punching each other silly but suffering blows from the market. Both blue-eyed boys of the investment banking world but now eyed by the other (slightly more stable) banks.

And if the New York Times is correct, the Spice Girls must be singing the right tunes as two U.S. banking giants seek a merger that may leave Goldman standing alone (and hopefully not silly).

Will Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson let Goldman fall? Is John Thain, after selling Merrill Lynch to BoA, returning back to Goldman to do a third miracle? Or will Robert Rubin, ex-Chairman of Citigroup, fancy a prized coup?

By now, you can guess what these gentlemen have in common.

Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Unrelenting mayhem

Glad that I have my usual 7pm football game on Tuesday to distract me from the turmoil in the market today.

I sneaked out of the office quietly at 645pm - usually I will be among the last to leave at that time but given the financial fiasco, the office was packed. And noisy. And tense. By now, rumours are flying all over the city. Is Barclays buying parts of Lehman? Is the much-feared collapse of AIG the start of a tsunami that will herald a new Great Depression?

No one has a clue but one thing for sure - no one is interested in the collapse of another rival.

Monday, September 15, 2008

Waking up to a different tune now...

With the sudden chain of events, I will not know if there is a P45 laying on the office desk anytime soon.

Only a week more to the pay check. I can wait though. Some will not be getting theirs.

There is always a winner...

... oh yes, did I mention that our very dear and beloved Temasek Holdings made a killing?

Any one-off tax rebate or hardship bonus to ease our pain? After all, they managed the country's reserves. And where did the funding (i.e. reserves) come from?

And there were six...

By now, this should be old news. After all, people trade on the seconds but the fate of many lies uncertain.

The news came in midnight U.S. time. I surfed-read Bloomberg last night before I slept and it was pretty much stale news at that point (which was evening in the U.S). Imagine the shock when I clicked onto Bloomberg in the morning and realised that the veritable financial institution is now history.

Frantic. Dramatic. Shock.

An understatement considering this is the biggest corporate bankruptcy ever. Bear Stearns, Enron and Andersen are now a distant memory. For all that have happened over the last 18 months due to the on-going credit and liquidity crisis, the events over the weekend and last week were of no match. First Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae were rescued by the U.S. government which led to the biggest ever default in the credit derivatives market. Oil plunged below $100, a good $30+ from March, then Lehman was reportedly due to be bailed out by some white knights, which only translated to a wipe-out come 48 hours later.

Goldmans Sach. Morgan Stanley. JP Morgan.Lehman Brothers. Merrill Lynch. Bear Stearns.

The last three have disappeared in a space of less than six months. The fallout could be less dramatic if not for the fact that I am in this very threatened industry. I remember I was only two months away from joining Andersen when the beleaguered audit firm collapsed which left me wondering where to go. Enron, Worldcom and the preceding Afghan war a year ago spelled doom for the many new graduates in my batch. Yet God has it for me to join KPMG which subsequently led me to where I am now.

The Lehman New York office has since become a "new tourist attraction". With staff streaming out of the office on Sunday night and curious bystanders standing by, watching the unfolding of a financial soap opera. How sad must it be for these staff, most of whom have nothing to do with the crisis (traders and senior management should be held responsible), many of whom may have kids and wives, many of whom will find difficulties in securing jobs in the next few months or years. It did not stop at New York; Lehman London HQ is just opposite the Barclays Capital building where I work. And by late morning, the reporters were all on-site to capture the first of many to leave the building. Cabs were streaming in and out to ferry tired and wounded bodies. Cameras and videos captured the dejected faces.

"It's kind of chaotic. The only question remaining is whether we will get this month's pay check."

"The Fed didn't bail us out. That's the right decision. As a taxpayer, rather than a Lehman employee, you shouldn't have to foot the bill for someone else's decision. It's a sad story for me and very many others."

"I had trouble getting here because of the Eurostar fire. When I finally made it I found out I was fired. We are all fired."


Quotes from many despondent staff. I know of a commodity trader in Lehman. Xueyan's ex-boss is there now. The talk at the water-cooler today, of course, revolved around Lehman. My colleague, who joined us a year ago from Lehman, told me his old team is no longer there. Everyone basically packed and went. And most of these bright people, he said, are unlikely to get jobs soon; many of whom are in their late thirties and hold senior/middle-management titles.

Will there be a change in the investment banking models? As we looked at the strike-list, there is something common among the fallen - the lack of a retail business. Not many MONTHS ago, retail banking was seen as unsexy and non-glamorous but it is now this unattractive business which is holding up the likes of UBS, Citigroup, Credit Suisse - banks which have posted similar or bigger losses than the collapsed. Right now Goldman and Morgan Stanley have come under fire (Is it a good thing that JP Morgan has the Chase business to fall back on?).

Perhaps this is what we call the cycle - you always have a trough and peak. And it is our time to witness this tough period. The day will come when the panic will strike me worse. Instead of seeking security in the securities that have now gone worthless, I thank God for His provisions. And if I were to worry about tomorrow, He has assured me - for He holds my future.

"Consider how the lilies grow. They do not labor or spin. Yet I tell you, not even Solomon in all his splendor was dressed like one of these. If that is how God clothes the grass of the field, which is here today, and tomorrow is thrown into the fire, how much more will he clothe you, O you of little faith! And do not set your heart on what you will eat or drink; do not worry about it.

Tuesday, September 02, 2008

An different voice

Interesting articles and more importantly, an alternative view.

The Online Citizen

Year of Return

Before this year, I have only returned to Singapore twice in over two years. And in this year up to now, I have already gone back twice. And it doesn't stop there - I will be going back again! Managed to squeeze an upcoming trip from 20 Sep to 1 Oct.

This time with a greater sense of purpose. And coming back with my love.

Sunday, August 24, 2008

Sister



Given 1) it's Monday bank holiday tomorrow and 2) I have not blogged for some time, I reckon it's due time for an update.

Sister and Xueyan were here beginning August for two weeks, before departing on the Monday just past. It's funny waking up and not seeing my sister and Xueyan. Every morning I will bring my laptop to my sister while she takes in the morning sunshine on the sofa. By that time (7.30am), she would already have had her tea and breakfast and waiting for Ms Wee to get up. We did not get on to much during the ladies' two-weeks in London, except for a weekend trip to Paris and a drive trip to Oxford/Bicester.

I had longed for my sister to come up. While it was great to have my beloved Xueyan here again, I have always wanted someone from the family to come over to London. A 14-hours flight can be a dreadful ordeal and I have been reminded by Xueyan how selfish I can be to ask them (repeatedly) to visit us, just so I can have them experience London (whether they like it or not). I did not take any vacation leave during the two weeks and left the gals to their devices to get on. But dinners are almost always together and I did help myself to some nice food (after endless instant noodles, cereals and pasta before their arrival).

Having family around is terrific and I can't ask for more than their presence. And it blessed my heart to see this message - "Thank you my best bro! I will go again! - on my sister's MSN. While I have been harassing Xueyan to have her siblings and parents over, I have come to realise they too should have a choice. While many would love to have an all-expenses-paid trip to London, not everyone thinks the same (and we thank God for diversity and differences).

On a separate note, I went for cell group on Friday and it was heart-warming to see old friends again (in a CG setting). There has been a lot going on in church in the last few weeks. Now that I am on fire - lets keep it alive at Marsham Street.

Sunday, July 27, 2008

How do you run the race?

He was widely acknowledged as the greatest strategist in his era. He could call on winds and storms to aid his tactics. His wizardry forms part of his resources. In a time of warlords and feudal chiefs, he built a kingdom for the smallest of them all. He lured "Tiger" generals and was seen without equal by his peers. He was the one who people saw as the hope for the Han unification.

I am a Romance of the Three Kingdom fan - an equivalent to the typical petrol head. Despite incapacitated by my semi-literate Mandarin, I developed a fond interest in this history. I have probably gone through the Chinese DVDs several rounds and can't seem to get bored of the show. While the summer weather tempts many for a run and a day in the park, my unfortunate hamstring got me to stay in for a Saturday of rest. And I drew a disc from the 72 DVDs of the RTK series for a watch. It was the episode that Zhuge Liang died.

Fresh from a failed ambush to kill Sima Yi, Zhuge Liang, who was into his fifth expedition to conquer the Northern empire (Cao Cao's legacy) knew time was not on his side. Coming down with sickness and overwork, Zhuge foresaw his imminent death and began to pass instructions for life after him. I have seen this episode about four times and something got clearer now. On his deathbed, he reminisced about his early life in recluse, the initial battles and struggles and the consequent victories. But one thing was clear to him (and me) now - his time is up. His goal will not be accomplished. The final scene before his death saw him looking at a flag which bores "Conquer the North" to which he said it will not be fulfilled by him.

We can often start so well and carry abundant brilliance compared to our peers. My time in investment banking and audit has exposed me to top talents, some young chaps making Managing Directors before thirty. However life is a marathon and is not judged on how well we do the first 400m. Nor what we have achieved during that short time. As I looked at his moments before the death scene, I asked myself - What will be my final thoughts? Have I been a man after God's heart? Have I lived a life worth living? And when I come before the throne of judgement - will I receive the acclaim and praise from Him, saying "Well done my son"?

No wonder Paul, in his final letter to Timothy, wrote "I have fought the good fight, I have finished the race, I have kept my faith. Now there is in store for me the crown of righteousness, which the Lord, the righteous judge, will award to me on that day - and not only to me, but also to all who have longed for his appearing."

The road ahead is very long, arduous and tough and definitely fraught with trials and temptations. But God has promised to be with us, as our guiding light. While the wrinkles will come, the pressures of work, married life and parenthood pile, yet we can take comfort that "we are hard pressed on every side, but not crushed; perplexed, but not in despair; persecuted, but not abandoned; struck down, but not destroyed."

And in the spirit of the Olympics, and with the sportsman/sportswoman in everyone of us - how would you like to run the race? Do you want to be a Ben Johnson or a Derek Redmond?

Friday, July 25, 2008

I wun stop sharing...

As I shared a few days ago, I have been very disturbed and troubled lately. To the extent of having sleepless nights and getting worried about falling ill.

I read Proverbs 3 last night, and because it was a long chapter, I ended at verse 23. Partly because it was the last verse on that page. And partly because I dun really know why.

So tonight, laden with all the anxieties and fears, I continued the unfinished part of Proverbs 3, continuing with verse 24. To which God allayed my fears.

"when you lie down, you will not be afraid; when you lie down, your sleep will be sweet. Have no fear of sudden disaster or of the ruin that overtakes the wicked, for the Lord will be your confidence and will keep your foot from being snared."

Enough said. I felt like crying. Just can't stop praising. And sharing His goodness.

Wednesday, July 23, 2008

Amazed once again - flabbergasted!

We had a mini discussion about longevity over emails. She asked if I can continue to love her for the next 10, 20 and 40 years. Thinking I probably can't survive till 70, I replied "Not 40 years but as long as I live." She said no - at least 40 years. To which I said "okay". Still very unsure whether I can live that long (yes I do have anxieties re life expectancy).

And as I did QT at 9pm today, reading from Proverbs 3, the following leaped out from the bible...

"My son, do not forget my teaching, but keep my commands in your heart, for they will prolong your life many years and bring you prosperity."

Amazed? I know it can be easy to frame this line according to "what I want". Similarly it is dangerous to read and decipher without a proper contextual understanding of what was written. But I do know what I have been praying about and my recent worries. But I still find it amazing how God works sometimes. Just having a simple mind can led to an overwhelming appreciation of God's wonders. And I just want to say how real God is again.

Perhaps it is good to keep a simple mind. Speak to God and learn to receive unreservedly. You might be amazed too.

Monday, July 21, 2008

My GOD is real!

I have been somewhat troubled and disturbed recently (no, not by that "event"). The past me would have been very kan-cheong and start looking for a solution. But what God has done with and in me over the last six months prompted me to kneel before Him in prayers and to seek refuge in Him.

Sometimes I cannot be sure that God really listens or whether it is relevant to Him. But as I prayed and sought for comfort and peace, Psalm 54 came to me. Not something that I am familiar with and with initial hesitation, I was wondering if I really heard that. And whether God really knows that I am crying out to Him.

And verses 1-2 read:

Save me, O God, by your name; vindicate me by your might. Hear my prayer, O God; listen to the words of my mouth.

Isn't that amazing? I cannot fathom the extent of His love and His interest in a minnow like me. But He is really interested in each and every individual. There will be situations which may look seriously distressed or hopeless but our God is a God of hope. There have been countless situations when God delivered but Man is just so forgetful (which reminds me I should blog this and write it somewhere). Exams and work are good examples.

And in verse 4, David declares "Surely God is my help; the Lord is the one who sustains me." Although this Psalm did not speak of a deliverance but it depicted the same cry that I have to God. And a reminder of turning a prayer into praise. That in all circumstances, remembering who the Master and Maker is. Though some form of anxiety and uncertainty may still remain and resolution may take time, I want to believe just as the final verse says -

"For HE has delivered me from all my troubles, and my eyes have looked in triumph on my foes."

Sunday, July 20, 2008

Did God pull my leg?

I confirm that God has a good sense of humour. And great timing sense. He knows that I have been busy with certain things and not been spending as much time (as I should) on the Word.

So He pulled my leg. To be precise, my hamstring. While playing football on Thu (Note: if you were to speak to my colleagues and footie friends, they would suggest it's my stubbornness and lack of warm-up. Can't blame Him all the time!). So I stayed in this weekend (then again, I stayed in most weekends) and did a fair bit of reading and praying. And to replace the weekend sermon, I listened to an audio clip by Ravi Zacharias, titled "Flirting with the Truth".

I used to listen to his audio clips back in Uni and in my KPMG days. It is certainly refreshing to hear his prophetic and insightful words again. This message touched on Acts 24 as Paul was placed before Felix, who the latter was hoping for a spectacle/show by the former. However as Paul defended his "trial" and spoke on "righteousness, self-control and judgement", it was clearly all too much for Felix and his adulterous partner who soon has Paul removed from his presence.

I think I too will be disturbed if I were to sitting in Felix's shoes as Paul gave a non-watered down version of the gospel which is sadly found lacking nowadays. The modern world's focus on the emotional and political aspects of life has removed that edge from the gospel. As we analyse and debate on certain moral issues, it is so easy (and common) to reach that common ground - lets agree to disagree. There isn't a good and wrong answer here.

Moving away from the gospel and becoming receptive and accepting of other viewpoints could and possibly would lead us to lose the ability to discern. As Ravi puts it - "The closer one gets to God, the more one understands what's right and wrong. And what is imperative". And little wonder it is written in the scriptures - "The man without the Spirit does not accept the things that come from the Spirit of God, for they are foolishness to him, and he cannot understand them, because they are spiritually discerned."

While it is good to be technically and theologically sound, "theological constructs, in Ravi's words, can be argued and can be ignored, but our lives cannot be refuted if God is obvious in our lives".

Living that life will not be easy. And a struggle against media bombardment and subjected to the barrage of "acceptable, politically-right moral values" thrown forward by the politicians, celebs and the likes.

But if He could pull my leg to show me a simple lesson, I would want to give Him my life to be eternally transformed.

Friday, July 18, 2008

Media at its lowest...

For this article to make it to the headlines on AsiaOne.

One word. Pathetic.

Thursday, July 10, 2008

Practice doesn't always make perfect...

"The harder you train, the luckier you get"

No way. I thought four months apart should put me in good stead when I returned to London. I realise that I am missing you even more!

Wednesday, July 02, 2008

A different return...

We almost missed each other. Well, not actually almost but on a day when this Singapore trip was supposed to reach a crescendo, she was held up at work. With time ticking down to my departure, I waited patiently for her arrival. Somehow I was not irritated, not flustered. Perhaps it is a job that was already done when I arrived in Singapore 13 days ago. I know the short one hour we can have together before I make my way to the airport is nothing compared to an eternity together. Perhaps it is this hope that made this trip especially enjoyable.

I thought I was the happiest man over the last few days. Then again, seeing my father's grins and the happy chatter between my mum and sister has made me realise how blessed me and my family are to have Xueyan in our midst. We took lots of photos at the airport and when it came to me crossing that "sacred line and glass window", there were no tears shed. Because the emptiness four months ago has been replaced by a fresh hope.

That this old man is no longer going to be alone, this old man has been blessed with the most wonderful woman.