is no praise. And you wonder why American executives are so highly-paid!
Thursday, May 07, 2009
Sunday, May 03, 2009
Home away from Home
3 1/2 years sounds like a long time away from home. That's enough to finish two rounds of NS or a undergraduate degree course. But unlike the many Singapore scholars who are sent overseas to study, I do not know when I am going back home. And uncertain of the "career path" that lies ahead should I head for the sunny shores. There seems to be many minor reasons why we are staying put in London, though I can't put a finger to a specific reason.
Someone did come up with a list though.
Four reasons Singaporeans stay put abroad (AsiaOne)
I REFER to last Saturday's article, 'Asia's brain gain'.
I thank The Straits Times for giving readers such an informative and positive article on Asian students heading back to their homeland on work and business.
One key thing I realised is that their respective governments are very supportive of them returning to their homeland, with some even providing funds to help them start viable businesses. This could be the main lure for Asian students to return home after graduation. Read more here...
Four simple reasons which seem to hit the point. Why from a work perspective, ignoring family and friends, it is simply better to work in Europe or U.S. Singapore Day, which was held two Sundays ago at Hampton Court, tugged at the heart strings; as we feasted on the char kuey teow, listened to the lame (but funny) jokes by Jack Neo and gang, spoke in Singlish, the work factor does take a back seat. However that is not reality, the truth is everyone spends a good 8-10 hours of our life each day at work. And it is important that the environment we work in, the stuff we do serve to make us happier (or make it less of a pain). And time away from work should be used in the most fruitful way. And not going into the office (again) over the weekends.
In Singapore, I can stillimagine remember the late working hours and dumping myself onto the sofa after a long day (repeatedly). Going into the office over the weekends to finish work. Getting peeved over silly deadlines or ridiculous requests.
Now, I spent my weekends sailing, Xueyan has her sushi or interior design classes. Singaporeans (in Singapore) look to travelling holidays as a distraction from work and certainly with envy, yet I hear friends popping over to Europe continent for a weekend getaway or driving out to the vineyards or fruit farms most weekends.
Why then should we give up all these to be miserable in Singapore (though in time, I think we will definitely do so!)?
Someone did come up with a list though.
Four reasons Singaporeans stay put abroad (AsiaOne)
I REFER to last Saturday's article, 'Asia's brain gain'.
I thank The Straits Times for giving readers such an informative and positive article on Asian students heading back to their homeland on work and business.
One key thing I realised is that their respective governments are very supportive of them returning to their homeland, with some even providing funds to help them start viable businesses. This could be the main lure for Asian students to return home after graduation. Read more here...
Four simple reasons which seem to hit the point. Why from a work perspective, ignoring family and friends, it is simply better to work in Europe or U.S. Singapore Day, which was held two Sundays ago at Hampton Court, tugged at the heart strings; as we feasted on the char kuey teow, listened to the lame (but funny) jokes by Jack Neo and gang, spoke in Singlish, the work factor does take a back seat. However that is not reality, the truth is everyone spends a good 8-10 hours of our life each day at work. And it is important that the environment we work in, the stuff we do serve to make us happier (or make it less of a pain). And time away from work should be used in the most fruitful way. And not going into the office (again) over the weekends.
In Singapore, I can still
Now, I spent my weekends sailing, Xueyan has her sushi or interior design classes. Singaporeans (in Singapore) look to travelling holidays as a distraction from work and certainly with envy, yet I hear friends popping over to Europe continent for a weekend getaway or driving out to the vineyards or fruit farms most weekends.
Why then should we give up all these to be miserable in Singapore (though in time, I think we will definitely do so!)?
Thursday, April 23, 2009
Here to Stay????
Our visas just got extended for another three years!
Perhaps it's farewell after the Olympics!
Perhaps it's farewell after the Olympics!
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
Full of nothing
Water use up in dry spell
Wed, Feb 25, 2009
AsiaOne
The recent weeks of hot and dry weather have seen Singaporeans using more water - 16 Olympic-sized swimming pools more, to be exact.
With temperatures hitting 34 deg C last week, the daily potable water consumption rose to a high of 1.4 million cubic metre a day, which is 3 per cent more than the average daily consumption.
Mr Chong Hou Chun, Director of PUB's Water Supply Network urged Singaporeans to save water.
'Turning off the tap while soaping or brushing your teeth can help save more than 10 litres of water each time,' he said.
'If everyone cuts their water use by just 10 litres a day, the amount of water saved is enough to fill more than 6000 Olympic-sized swimming pools in a year,'
In its statement, PUB suggested more information on water conservation:
Simple measures on how the public can conserve water at home can be found at http://tenlitres.sec.org.sg/index.asp. More measures on how the non-domestic sector can be involved in water conservation can be found at www.tenpercent.sec.org.sg.
Members of the public may also call PUB's 24-hour call centre to request for a water saving kit.
I really don't understand the point of "reporting this news" or its newsworthiness. Isn't it plain obvious that one tends to drink or shower more in warmer weather? It seems like AsiaOne or Singapore press has nothing more to write about other than seduction in Joo Chiat or re-publishing credit crisis stuff.
Wed, Feb 25, 2009
AsiaOne
The recent weeks of hot and dry weather have seen Singaporeans using more water - 16 Olympic-sized swimming pools more, to be exact.
With temperatures hitting 34 deg C last week, the daily potable water consumption rose to a high of 1.4 million cubic metre a day, which is 3 per cent more than the average daily consumption.
Mr Chong Hou Chun, Director of PUB's Water Supply Network urged Singaporeans to save water.
'Turning off the tap while soaping or brushing your teeth can help save more than 10 litres of water each time,' he said.
'If everyone cuts their water use by just 10 litres a day, the amount of water saved is enough to fill more than 6000 Olympic-sized swimming pools in a year,'
In its statement, PUB suggested more information on water conservation:
Simple measures on how the public can conserve water at home can be found at http://tenlitres.sec.org.sg/index.asp. More measures on how the non-domestic sector can be involved in water conservation can be found at www.tenpercent.sec.org.sg.
Members of the public may also call PUB's 24-hour call centre to request for a water saving kit.
I really don't understand the point of "reporting this news" or its newsworthiness. Isn't it plain obvious that one tends to drink or shower more in warmer weather? It seems like AsiaOne or Singapore press has nothing more to write about other than seduction in Joo Chiat or re-publishing credit crisis stuff.
Sunday, February 22, 2009
Still open...
Time's up.
I meant a break. Now that the intense period is over, it's time to write. I have not blogged a huge bit of the wedding prepration prior to the actual day, but looking back, there is plenty to give thanks for. Not taking a honeymoon holiday, we returned to London two days after our wedding only to run into cold and wet weather, a messy apartment and piles of un-ironed clothes. Reality of a married life?
The trip to Singapore was amazing. Though it wasn't much of a break (given I spend a week out of the three in office and the rest on wedding preparation), I had an excellent time just catching up with people while distributing the invites. It's funny how I actually dreaded this experience at the same time - because I have been to a few dinners, knowing how boring it can to be seated with strangers and listening to the same message, I did not wish it upon others for my own special day. I was advised to post the invite, which thankfully I did not for most people (save a couple who were on reservist training). I actually opt to meet them and have a catch-up. In fact, I never once felt bad for myself should a friend was not able to make it for WHATEVER reason; after all this is an invitation, not a summon (yes Singaporeans do think of it that way). So I was very glad to see mates turning up and just those mates because they were the ones whom I really hope to have witnessed my special day.
We were truly blessed by the presence of our ex-KPMG friends (not just ex-colleagues), friends from churches and colleges. I had a rocking time with Dev the emcee in particular good form while my cousin helped greatly with my last minute request for a Mandarin translator (in fact almost everything was last minute!). I can only hope that my friends were blessed too!
I meant a break. Now that the intense period is over, it's time to write. I have not blogged a huge bit of the wedding prepration prior to the actual day, but looking back, there is plenty to give thanks for. Not taking a honeymoon holiday, we returned to London two days after our wedding only to run into cold and wet weather, a messy apartment and piles of un-ironed clothes. Reality of a married life?
The trip to Singapore was amazing. Though it wasn't much of a break (given I spend a week out of the three in office and the rest on wedding preparation), I had an excellent time just catching up with people while distributing the invites. It's funny how I actually dreaded this experience at the same time - because I have been to a few dinners, knowing how boring it can to be seated with strangers and listening to the same message, I did not wish it upon others for my own special day. I was advised to post the invite, which thankfully I did not for most people (save a couple who were on reservist training). I actually opt to meet them and have a catch-up. In fact, I never once felt bad for myself should a friend was not able to make it for WHATEVER reason; after all this is an invitation, not a summon (yes Singaporeans do think of it that way). So I was very glad to see mates turning up and just those mates because they were the ones whom I really hope to have witnessed my special day.
We were truly blessed by the presence of our ex-KPMG friends (not just ex-colleagues), friends from churches and colleges. I had a rocking time with Dev the emcee in particular good form while my cousin helped greatly with my last minute request for a Mandarin translator (in fact almost everything was last minute!). I can only hope that my friends were blessed too!
Monday, November 10, 2008
Chicken or Egg?
It is often said the equity or stock market leads the real recovery or recession in the economy. Equities, which have plummeted for a good part of 2008, seem to be on a rebound after the recent rally on Wall Street and in Asia. The latest stimulus package by China also came in at an opportune time, giving a second wind to bargain-hunting investors. In fact, it was even suggested over the weekend that the S&P may be heading for a six-day rally. That might be some truth in that earlier statement that the efficient market has priced in the recovery and, behold, we shall see the glorious days unveiled before our very own eyes soon.
I was also tempted to dip into equities now amid all the heightened hopes. But if I were to ignore the noise, step back and analyse, we are probably only half-way through the trough. There isn't any economic data or business statistics released so far that suggest that we are in recovery mode.
The latest:
You might not be able to take the mauling.
I was also tempted to dip into equities now amid all the heightened hopes. But if I were to ignore the noise, step back and analyse, we are probably only half-way through the trough. There isn't any economic data or business statistics released so far that suggest that we are in recovery mode.
The latest:
- General Motors has been downgraded to a price-target of ZERO. For an industry that drives (pun unintended) U.S. eleventh most populous city (Detroit) and with survival dependent on a bail-out, it doesn't exactly speak of optimism in the economy.
- Fannie Mae and AIG - two financial giants rescued by the U.S. government recently has reported record losses again. For the latter, the terms of the initial rescue has to be amended so that the company has more resuscitation time. It is important to realise the grave consequences of a bankruptcy by the insurer. The Fed has allowed 19 regional banks to fail, permitted Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers to fail (though the former was technically bought over by JPMorgan) but held on to AIG. It implies that any fall-out would bring about a financial tsunami. If the beleaguered insurer goes, I think I WILL go too.
- Economic data has now consistently surprised on the downside. Market-makers have been pricing in the downturn, bad results but it turned out that the actual results - unemployment, house prices, more layoffs, actual bankruptcy - have been truly, scary outstanding. Closer to home (Singapore), even the esteemed DBS is retrenching while the authorities are probably having cold sweat after the latest from the developer of their pet project.
You might not be able to take the mauling.
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Insurance - paying the Sky.
Suppose you own a BMW that costs $100k with five years left to drive. As per the rules, you have to buy insurance on the car, which ideally should cost a small percentage of the purchase cost. Then NTUC Insurance quoted $40k per year or $200k over five years. You look around and this seems to be the most "reasonable" price around. Over-the-top? Crazy?
Well, this is exactly the situation in the credit derivatives market for an emerging market name like Argentina or Pakistan. At 4000 basis points, one would have to shell out $400k of insurance (or more appropriately, premium) to cover $1M government debt issued by Argentina or Pakistan. Of course it is different from buying insurance for a beemer, because the market believes that the government is MORE LIKELY to default on payment than you wrapping the beemer around a tree.
Basic differences between an insurance contract and a CDS (credit default swap) contract:
- You don't need to own the underlying to buy a CDS i.e. I can buy protection (pay premium on a CDS contract) on a debt before owning the debt whereas you can't take out insurance on Mr Patel who owns the corner mama-store.
- You don't need to prove that you suffered a loss to "claim" the payout on a defaulted CDS ie if you buy a CDS on a Argentine bond and the government subsequently defaults, you will get a payout from the protection seller whether or not you bought the Argentina government bond. However if you "buang" a car and it miraculously escaped with no scratches or bumps, you won't get a single cent from the insurer.
Having said that, it's amazing how the market is pricing the default swaps now. Two years ago, a CDS on AA-rated Barclays PLC costs 10bp. Today it would cost 125bp for the same protection on AA-rated Barclays PLC. Simplistically it implied that the probability of default has increased 12.5 times. HSBC is a hefty 103bp while Singapore's very own DBS bank is at 180bp.
The all-powerful United States of America comes in at 30+bp. So what do you think of our beloved triple-A rated sunny island?
Well, this is exactly the situation in the credit derivatives market for an emerging market name like Argentina or Pakistan. At 4000 basis points, one would have to shell out $400k of insurance (or more appropriately, premium) to cover $1M government debt issued by Argentina or Pakistan. Of course it is different from buying insurance for a beemer, because the market believes that the government is MORE LIKELY to default on payment than you wrapping the beemer around a tree.
Basic differences between an insurance contract and a CDS (credit default swap) contract:
- You don't need to own the underlying to buy a CDS i.e. I can buy protection (pay premium on a CDS contract) on a debt before owning the debt whereas you can't take out insurance on Mr Patel who owns the corner mama-store.
- You don't need to prove that you suffered a loss to "claim" the payout on a defaulted CDS ie if you buy a CDS on a Argentine bond and the government subsequently defaults, you will get a payout from the protection seller whether or not you bought the Argentina government bond. However if you "buang" a car and it miraculously escaped with no scratches or bumps, you won't get a single cent from the insurer.
Having said that, it's amazing how the market is pricing the default swaps now. Two years ago, a CDS on AA-rated Barclays PLC costs 10bp. Today it would cost 125bp for the same protection on AA-rated Barclays PLC. Simplistically it implied that the probability of default has increased 12.5 times. HSBC is a hefty 103bp while Singapore's very own DBS bank is at 180bp.
The all-powerful United States of America comes in at 30+bp. So what do you think of our beloved triple-A rated sunny island?
Saturday, October 25, 2008
So the Dow closed down another 200 points lower as I write. The HSI has also been in a free fall, shedding close to 13% as Asia tracked the dismal overnight close on Wall Street last Friday.
My view on this? It is only going to get worse. Any multi-billion-dollar relief package is only short-lived although it appears that the broad market is bottoming out.
The entire global financial crisis must be taken in consideration and in perspective with past and recent down-turns. No one should be surprised by what is happening now (and will happen) given our Economics 101 understanding of the cyclical economy. What goes up must come down. What's surprisingly is the extent of the damage of this fall-out. Three veritable institutions folded in one year, sky-high credit spreads (which I will talk about later) and a seemingly bottomless equity market. I am so blessed to witness all these (future bragging rights. "I was there in London when Lehman Brothers employees were carrying...").
The decoupling theory has failed and will be some time even anyone uses that. Then again, institutional memory is so short that all the CDOs and minibonds and boom-theories will come into play in a few years. Amid this crisis, UK has been hit hard. Real hard. The sterling has fallen faster than gravity in the last ten months. About 20% since the start of the year and in my bounded knowledge, a level unseen against the Singapore dollar for years. I remember changing a small fortune at Change Alley back in February at the rate of £1 for $2.78; I cursed under my breath and told myself I had to change at this pathetic rate just to manage my SGD-denominated transactions. I should have thrown in everything plus the kitchen sink for that rate, given sterling closed at 2.33 last night! Hindsight review makes geniuses out of us.
My view on this? It is only going to get worse. Any multi-billion-dollar relief package is only short-lived although it appears that the broad market is bottoming out.
The entire global financial crisis must be taken in consideration and in perspective with past and recent down-turns. No one should be surprised by what is happening now (and will happen) given our Economics 101 understanding of the cyclical economy. What goes up must come down. What's surprisingly is the extent of the damage of this fall-out. Three veritable institutions folded in one year, sky-high credit spreads (which I will talk about later) and a seemingly bottomless equity market. I am so blessed to witness all these (future bragging rights. "I was there in London when Lehman Brothers employees were carrying...").
The decoupling theory has failed and will be some time even anyone uses that. Then again, institutional memory is so short that all the CDOs and minibonds and boom-theories will come into play in a few years. Amid this crisis, UK has been hit hard. Real hard. The sterling has fallen faster than gravity in the last ten months. About 20% since the start of the year and in my bounded knowledge, a level unseen against the Singapore dollar for years. I remember changing a small fortune at Change Alley back in February at the rate of £1 for $2.78; I cursed under my breath and told myself I had to change at this pathetic rate just to manage my SGD-denominated transactions. I should have thrown in everything plus the kitchen sink for that rate, given sterling closed at 2.33 last night! Hindsight review makes geniuses out of us.
If I am an Aussie working in the UK, I would be happy, but not when I am a Singaporean with Majullah Singapura running in my blood. I was on instant messaging with another Singaporean friend (Joyce) last Friday.
Me: What to do now? Sterling is sh!t now.
Joyce: Oh, I hope you are not long on sterling.
Me: I am very, VERY long.
Joyce: gosh, I feel your pain. I can really feel it.
Me: Da Jie, what to do?
Joyce: Bite the bullet and change all now. The end has not arrived.
Change?!?!? I am seeing a paper loss of close to six figures. And FX-changing that will crystallise the loss! Another female colleague asked if I have been using some special face-whitening cream after I exited the IM conversation.
It is not a GBP story, but a USD story - from what I read in FX research. The sterling is pounded for the reason that Britain is perceived weaker than a truly battered America. The power of the Treasury and the intricate ties of the American dollar to the world economy ensures that the dollar will not fail. Will not collapse. In times of crisis and heightened risk-aversion, the dollar and yen will appreciate because they are seen as the safest assets (the US government beh toh?).
Gold, which is largely seen as an alternative safe haven to equities, has not been having a good time. In fact, other than government bonds, almost everything from commodities to equities to credit, is going south. Gold lost $100 in a week and was close to testing the sub-$700 after hitting $706.10 this morning.
Flight to safety has seen people dumping stocks, despite the ban on short-selling. Virtually all markets are down as investors flee equities. Even the legendary Warren Buffet, who was calling for red-hot American patriotism, has failed to ignite the market. What's worse - people has been making money running reversal trades and called the bluff on Buffet.
Normalising four stock indices - S&P500, FTSE-100, Nikkei-225 and STI(?!?!?) - it appears that the fall-out has not been as bad in the west as in the east. And for people who are looking for a kill on the stock markets anytime soon, it is wise to read this.
Am I slow or what?
So Friday's release of UK Q3 figures came as no surprise. Perhaps slightly under-estimated on the downside. All the island needs is another contraction in the Q4 to "officially" enter recession. But most has come to realise that UK is already in recession and just waiting for the official numbers to be published in January to confirm an on-going fact is almost a worthless act.
Is the cold numbing my senses and delaying my assessment of the economy? I don't (touch wood) feel any unease about my current job and has been fielding questions from recruiters asking if I am interested in a move elsewhere. The weekly lunch at Sri Nam has not been cancelled. I have also added more ingredients to my daily cooking recipes.
But if I were to take a CLOSER and REAL look, I could already be experiencing the effects of a recession in my life. I may be adding more exotic dishes, but I am cooking/eating at home on most days instead of take-away or dining-in at restaurants. I have started bringing my 3-in-1 Milo sachets to office instead of enjoying the £1.55 mocha and £1-two-slices-of-peanut butter-bread which I DID enjoy on a daily basis. And I have also turned to having fruits for snacks (which is a healthier option than crisps and chocolate). Seeing the lunch crowd in Canary Wharf, it's either more people are exercising in the park to skip lunch or I need a new pair of glasses to see the "missing shoppers/diners".
This morning, for the first time in three years, I went to Billingsgate Market. A fish market just across the road from my place and UK's largest inland fish market. 4kg of haddock for £28, 2 kg of scallops for £12 and more other fishy stuff...
No wonder John Lewis and Waitrose are complaining...
Is the cold numbing my senses and delaying my assessment of the economy? I don't (touch wood) feel any unease about my current job and has been fielding questions from recruiters asking if I am interested in a move elsewhere. The weekly lunch at Sri Nam has not been cancelled. I have also added more ingredients to my daily cooking recipes.
But if I were to take a CLOSER and REAL look, I could already be experiencing the effects of a recession in my life. I may be adding more exotic dishes, but I am cooking/eating at home on most days instead of take-away or dining-in at restaurants. I have started bringing my 3-in-1 Milo sachets to office instead of enjoying the £1.55 mocha and £1-two-slices-of-peanut butter-bread which I DID enjoy on a daily basis. And I have also turned to having fruits for snacks (which is a healthier option than crisps and chocolate). Seeing the lunch crowd in Canary Wharf, it's either more people are exercising in the park to skip lunch or I need a new pair of glasses to see the "missing shoppers/diners".
This morning, for the first time in three years, I went to Billingsgate Market. A fish market just across the road from my place and UK's largest inland fish market. 4kg of haddock for £28, 2 kg of scallops for £12 and more other fishy stuff...
No wonder John Lewis and Waitrose are complaining...
Sunday, October 19, 2008
There can only be one president...
But the other can consider an alternative career as a comedian...
Thursday, October 09, 2008
Time for an upgrade
Even the clock needs a rest or an upgrade. The counter, which tracks the national debt owed by the U.S. government, has ran out of spaces following the $700 billion bail-out package approved by the U.S. Congress. The authorities better get a bigger clock if this plan is to go through.
Picture from http://blog.wired.com
Wednesday, October 08, 2008
Raining Cats and Dogs
Judging from the way stocks are plummeting at the moment, it's time to get a good umbrella.
Well, I might need more than an umbrella...
Saturday, October 04, 2008
Of soup and salad
Only three days back in London and the distinct differences are showing up. Instead of indecision over lunch choices in Singapore, I had just two options - soup or fish&chips. Knowing how easy it is to put on weight in cold weather, I opted for the safer latter.
Autumn seems to have disappeared in the two weeks I was back in Singapore. It went below 5deg last night. The pounding winds did little to alleviate the already freezing temperature and Xueyan's mood. Other than a rewarding lunch dim sum, we stayed in on Saturday to catch tcs shows (via mobtv - interesting!). And had pak choi, tofu and mushrooms for dinner - Xueyan's style. Marvellous.
With days literally fast becoming nights, it is time to explore and develop the culinary skills.
Autumn seems to have disappeared in the two weeks I was back in Singapore. It went below 5deg last night. The pounding winds did little to alleviate the already freezing temperature and Xueyan's mood. Other than a rewarding lunch dim sum, we stayed in on Saturday to catch tcs shows (via mobtv - interesting!). And had pak choi, tofu and mushrooms for dinner - Xueyan's style. Marvellous.
With days literally fast becoming nights, it is time to explore and develop the culinary skills.
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
Get the monkey off my back
Now that the investment banking model is "officially dead", it is time to resolve the murder.
The Treasury's proposal of a massive bail-out for the troubled banks, getting the toxic debt off their books sent equities sky-rocketing on Friday. By now, the shrewd investors would have taken profit with the stock indices lower yesterday and today.
So what are the traps behind the TARP (troubled asset relief programme)? As The Economist points out, it could possibly be another stop-gap measure to stem the avalanche in the financial turmoil. The first liquidity programme extended in March/Apr, then the subsequent bail-out of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae proved to be short-term stimulus. Taking over the problematic loans and complex structures may save the floundering banks but might not win the credit crisis war.
The underlying loans may prove to be an over-bearing burden on the U.S. government and, for a nation going to the presidential elections in November, the fall-out will lie on the next leader. No wonder Mr Cowboy is all-willing to endorse this plan. He could be digging a big hole for the next fellow (then again, can anyone get worse?).
In my limited but honest opinion (of course governed by bounded rationality), this plan would only serve to prop up the rich and the very rich and the disgusting rich. The banks will survive the crisis, but the normal folks whose very loans underpinned the lending problems do not get a full resolution to their problems.
I should be grateful for this will keep me more secure (like Jade Goody on the gymnastic beam) but I wonder if this is only touching the tip of the iceberg.
The Treasury's proposal of a massive bail-out for the troubled banks, getting the toxic debt off their books sent equities sky-rocketing on Friday. By now, the shrewd investors would have taken profit with the stock indices lower yesterday and today.
So what are the traps behind the TARP (troubled asset relief programme)? As The Economist points out, it could possibly be another stop-gap measure to stem the avalanche in the financial turmoil. The first liquidity programme extended in March/Apr, then the subsequent bail-out of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae proved to be short-term stimulus. Taking over the problematic loans and complex structures may save the floundering banks but might not win the credit crisis war.
The underlying loans may prove to be an over-bearing burden on the U.S. government and, for a nation going to the presidential elections in November, the fall-out will lie on the next leader. No wonder Mr Cowboy is all-willing to endorse this plan. He could be digging a big hole for the next fellow (then again, can anyone get worse?).
In my limited but honest opinion (of course governed by bounded rationality), this plan would only serve to prop up the rich and the very rich and the disgusting rich. The banks will survive the crisis, but the normal folks whose very loans underpinned the lending problems do not get a full resolution to their problems.
I should be grateful for this will keep me more secure (like Jade Goody on the gymnastic beam) but I wonder if this is only touching the tip of the iceberg.
Monday, September 22, 2008
Doc's out... come back later
In what was the most eventful week on Wall Street in recent months, I had to go on vacation.
Nope, not a deliberate attempt to escape the late nights in office given the recent upheaval. Nor was it an intended "push-out" by the management. It was mere coincidence. I have to publish a commentary report on the intranet everyday, so unsurprisingly is especially tuned-in to the latest events and news in the financial arena. To which Le Boss said, just as I was about to leave the office for Heathrow - "Take your finger off the pulse for the next two weeks. Come back to discover what had happened. You will have a fresh perspective".
Well, I spent an hour on Bloomberg after my arrival in Singapore on Saturday. So much for going on holidays.
Nope, not a deliberate attempt to escape the late nights in office given the recent upheaval. Nor was it an intended "push-out" by the management. It was mere coincidence. I have to publish a commentary report on the intranet everyday, so unsurprisingly is especially tuned-in to the latest events and news in the financial arena. To which Le Boss said, just as I was about to leave the office for Heathrow - "Take your finger off the pulse for the next two weeks. Come back to discover what had happened. You will have a fresh perspective".
Well, I spent an hour on Bloomberg after my arrival in Singapore on Saturday. So much for going on holidays.
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
Last Man Standing
I need to correct my earlier "mistake". While JPMorgan is an investment bank, Chase's merger with the securities house meant that there are only two independent broker-dealer firms now.
Goldman Sachs (in the blue corner) and Morgan Stanley (in the red corner).
Funny thing is they are not punching each other silly but suffering blows from the market. Both blue-eyed boys of the investment banking world but now eyed by the other (slightly more stable) banks.
And if the New York Times is correct, the Spice Girls must be singing the right tunes as two U.S. banking giants seek a merger that may leave Goldman standing alone (and hopefully not silly).
Will Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson let Goldman fall? Is John Thain, after selling Merrill Lynch to BoA, returning back to Goldman to do a third miracle? Or will Robert Rubin, ex-Chairman of Citigroup, fancy a prized coup?
By now, you can guess what these gentlemen have in common.
Goldman Sachs (in the blue corner) and Morgan Stanley (in the red corner).
Funny thing is they are not punching each other silly but suffering blows from the market. Both blue-eyed boys of the investment banking world but now eyed by the other (slightly more stable) banks.
And if the New York Times is correct, the Spice Girls must be singing the right tunes as two U.S. banking giants seek a merger that may leave Goldman standing alone (and hopefully not silly).
Will Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson let Goldman fall? Is John Thain, after selling Merrill Lynch to BoA, returning back to Goldman to do a third miracle? Or will Robert Rubin, ex-Chairman of Citigroup, fancy a prized coup?
By now, you can guess what these gentlemen have in common.
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
Unrelenting mayhem
Glad that I have my usual 7pm football game on Tuesday to distract me from the turmoil in the market today.
I sneaked out of the office quietly at 645pm - usually I will be among the last to leave at that time but given the financial fiasco, the office was packed. And noisy. And tense. By now, rumours are flying all over the city. Is Barclays buying parts of Lehman? Is the much-feared collapse of AIG the start of a tsunami that will herald a new Great Depression?
No one has a clue but one thing for sure - no one is interested in the collapse of another rival.
I sneaked out of the office quietly at 645pm - usually I will be among the last to leave at that time but given the financial fiasco, the office was packed. And noisy. And tense. By now, rumours are flying all over the city. Is Barclays buying parts of Lehman? Is the much-feared collapse of AIG the start of a tsunami that will herald a new Great Depression?
No one has a clue but one thing for sure - no one is interested in the collapse of another rival.
Monday, September 15, 2008
Waking up to a different tune now...
With the sudden chain of events, I will not know if there is a P45 laying on the office desk anytime soon.
Only a week more to the pay check. I can wait though. Some will not be getting theirs.
Only a week more to the pay check. I can wait though. Some will not be getting theirs.
There is always a winner...
... oh yes, did I mention that our very dear and beloved Temasek Holdings made a killing?
Any one-off tax rebate or hardship bonus to ease our pain? After all, they managed the country's reserves. And where did the funding (i.e. reserves) come from?
Any one-off tax rebate or hardship bonus to ease our pain? After all, they managed the country's reserves. And where did the funding (i.e. reserves) come from?
And there were six...
By now, this should be old news. After all, people trade on the seconds but the fate of many lies uncertain.
The news came in midnight U.S. time. I surfed-read Bloomberg last night before I slept and it was pretty much stale news at that point (which was evening in the U.S). Imagine the shock when I clicked onto Bloomberg in the morning and realised that the veritable financial institution is now history.
Frantic. Dramatic. Shock.
An understatement considering this is the biggest corporate bankruptcy ever. Bear Stearns, Enron and Andersen are now a distant memory. For all that have happened over the last 18 months due to the on-going credit and liquidity crisis, the events over the weekend and last week were of no match. First Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae were rescued by the U.S. government which led to the biggest ever default in the credit derivatives market. Oil plunged below $100, a good $30+ from March, then Lehman was reportedly due to be bailed out by some white knights, which only translated to a wipe-out come 48 hours later.
Goldmans Sach. Morgan Stanley. JP Morgan.Lehman Brothers. Merrill Lynch. Bear Stearns.
The last three have disappeared in a space of less than six months. The fallout could be less dramatic if not for the fact that I am in this very threatened industry. I remember I was only two months away from joining Andersen when the beleaguered audit firm collapsed which left me wondering where to go. Enron, Worldcom and the preceding Afghan war a year ago spelled doom for the many new graduates in my batch. Yet God has it for me to join KPMG which subsequently led me to where I am now.
The Lehman New York office has since become a "new tourist attraction". With staff streaming out of the office on Sunday night and curious bystanders standing by, watching the unfolding of a financial soap opera. How sad must it be for these staff, most of whom have nothing to do with the crisis (traders and senior management should be held responsible), many of whom may have kids and wives, many of whom will find difficulties in securing jobs in the next few months or years. It did not stop at New York; Lehman London HQ is just opposite the Barclays Capital building where I work. And by late morning, the reporters were all on-site to capture the first of many to leave the building. Cabs were streaming in and out to ferry tired and wounded bodies. Cameras and videos captured the dejected faces.
"It's kind of chaotic. The only question remaining is whether we will get this month's pay check."
"The Fed didn't bail us out. That's the right decision. As a taxpayer, rather than a Lehman employee, you shouldn't have to foot the bill for someone else's decision. It's a sad story for me and very many others."
"I had trouble getting here because of the Eurostar fire. When I finally made it I found out I was fired. We are all fired."
Quotes from many despondent staff. I know of a commodity trader in Lehman. Xueyan's ex-boss is there now. The talk at the water-cooler today, of course, revolved around Lehman. My colleague, who joined us a year ago from Lehman, told me his old team is no longer there. Everyone basically packed and went. And most of these bright people, he said, are unlikely to get jobs soon; many of whom are in their late thirties and hold senior/middle-management titles.
Will there be a change in the investment banking models? As we looked at the strike-list, there is something common among the fallen - the lack of a retail business. Not many MONTHS ago, retail banking was seen as unsexy and non-glamorous but it is now this unattractive business which is holding up the likes of UBS, Citigroup, Credit Suisse - banks which have posted similar or bigger losses than the collapsed. Right now Goldman and Morgan Stanley have come under fire (Is it a good thing that JP Morgan has the Chase business to fall back on?).
Perhaps this is what we call the cycle - you always have a trough and peak. And it is our time to witness this tough period. The day will come when the panic will strike me worse. Instead of seeking security in the securities that have now gone worthless, I thank God for His provisions. And if I were to worry about tomorrow, He has assured me - for He holds my future.
"Consider how the lilies grow. They do not labor or spin. Yet I tell you, not even Solomon in all his splendor was dressed like one of these. If that is how God clothes the grass of the field, which is here today, and tomorrow is thrown into the fire, how much more will he clothe you, O you of little faith! And do not set your heart on what you will eat or drink; do not worry about it.
The news came in midnight U.S. time. I surfed-read Bloomberg last night before I slept and it was pretty much stale news at that point (which was evening in the U.S). Imagine the shock when I clicked onto Bloomberg in the morning and realised that the veritable financial institution is now history.
Frantic. Dramatic. Shock.
An understatement considering this is the biggest corporate bankruptcy ever. Bear Stearns, Enron and Andersen are now a distant memory. For all that have happened over the last 18 months due to the on-going credit and liquidity crisis, the events over the weekend and last week were of no match. First Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae were rescued by the U.S. government which led to the biggest ever default in the credit derivatives market. Oil plunged below $100, a good $30+ from March, then Lehman was reportedly due to be bailed out by some white knights, which only translated to a wipe-out come 48 hours later.
Goldmans Sach. Morgan Stanley. JP Morgan.
The last three have disappeared in a space of less than six months. The fallout could be less dramatic if not for the fact that I am in this very threatened industry. I remember I was only two months away from joining Andersen when the beleaguered audit firm collapsed which left me wondering where to go. Enron, Worldcom and the preceding Afghan war a year ago spelled doom for the many new graduates in my batch. Yet God has it for me to join KPMG which subsequently led me to where I am now.
The Lehman New York office has since become a "new tourist attraction". With staff streaming out of the office on Sunday night and curious bystanders standing by, watching the unfolding of a financial soap opera. How sad must it be for these staff, most of whom have nothing to do with the crisis (traders and senior management should be held responsible), many of whom may have kids and wives, many of whom will find difficulties in securing jobs in the next few months or years. It did not stop at New York; Lehman London HQ is just opposite the Barclays Capital building where I work. And by late morning, the reporters were all on-site to capture the first of many to leave the building. Cabs were streaming in and out to ferry tired and wounded bodies. Cameras and videos captured the dejected faces.
"It's kind of chaotic. The only question remaining is whether we will get this month's pay check."
"The Fed didn't bail us out. That's the right decision. As a taxpayer, rather than a Lehman employee, you shouldn't have to foot the bill for someone else's decision. It's a sad story for me and very many others."
"I had trouble getting here because of the Eurostar fire. When I finally made it I found out I was fired. We are all fired."
Quotes from many despondent staff. I know of a commodity trader in Lehman. Xueyan's ex-boss is there now. The talk at the water-cooler today, of course, revolved around Lehman. My colleague, who joined us a year ago from Lehman, told me his old team is no longer there. Everyone basically packed and went. And most of these bright people, he said, are unlikely to get jobs soon; many of whom are in their late thirties and hold senior/middle-management titles.
Will there be a change in the investment banking models? As we looked at the strike-list, there is something common among the fallen - the lack of a retail business. Not many MONTHS ago, retail banking was seen as unsexy and non-glamorous but it is now this unattractive business which is holding up the likes of UBS, Citigroup, Credit Suisse - banks which have posted similar or bigger losses than the collapsed. Right now Goldman and Morgan Stanley have come under fire (Is it a good thing that JP Morgan has the Chase business to fall back on?).
Perhaps this is what we call the cycle - you always have a trough and peak. And it is our time to witness this tough period. The day will come when the panic will strike me worse. Instead of seeking security in the securities that have now gone worthless, I thank God for His provisions. And if I were to worry about tomorrow, He has assured me - for He holds my future.
"Consider how the lilies grow. They do not labor or spin. Yet I tell you, not even Solomon in all his splendor was dressed like one of these. If that is how God clothes the grass of the field, which is here today, and tomorrow is thrown into the fire, how much more will he clothe you, O you of little faith! And do not set your heart on what you will eat or drink; do not worry about it.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
